A Broncos win-win? Maybe not. History says trading down and finding a QB is difficult (2024)

Sean Payton doesn’t care about your in-theory NFL Draft strategies.

His approach has always been to target specific players and do what it takes to get them. He said this winter he’s “unconcerned” with what others deem good or poor value if the Broncos get the guy they want. Especially at the most important position in the game.

Here’s a popular idea: Trade down from No. 12, gain draft capital and still draft a quarterback early… just not that early. Most likely either Oregon’s Bo Nix or Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. Collect extra picks and $200 for passing “Go” while you’re at it.

Easy as that.

Payton poured cold water on that notion last month at the NFL’s spring ownership meetings.

“I think you tune out the stuff you read,” Payton said. “Just go back, we just saw the second run on the (2021) draft class that everyone loved all these prospects. Now they’re all with different teams. So you look closely. A lot of times, you’ll hear someone say, ‘Hey, they can always move back and pick up one of these other players.’ The reality of it is that one or maybe two of these guys will have a chance of success.

“Then you get those leap years where three or four do.”

This time of year it’s always worth wondering if a coach is actually dousing a fire or just kicking up a smokescreen.

Payton, though, has a point on this front. Trades are common in the draft. But trading down in the first round and hitting on a quarterback with a premium pick? That’s entirely uncommon.

The Post found two instances since the institution of the rookie wage scale in 2011 of a team trading down in the first round and then using that capital to take a quarterback. It happened slightly more often between 2000 and 2010, but without much more success.

Here’s a look at those five deals. The best quarterback drafted among them: Joe Flacco by Baltimore in 2008.

Minnesota 2021

The year Payton referenced as a warning to those who think 2024 is just going to spit out starting quarterback after starting quarterback.

Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson and Trey Lance went in the first three picks. San Francisco provided a potential model for the Broncos in terms of moving up from No. 12. The 49ers got to No. 3 by dealing three first-round picks and a third-rounder.

What if the Vikings showed another potential path for Denver? Minnesota dealt Nos. 14 and 143 to the Jets for Nos. 23, 66 and 86.

The Jets had already taken a quarterback in Wilson at No. 2 and wanted to get back up to take offensive lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker.

Minnesota had Kirk Cousins and could have drafted Mac Jones (he went No. 15), but instead traded back. It nailed No. 23 by drafting left tackle Christian Darrisaw, then selected quarterback Kellen Mond at No. 66 in the middle of a second-tier QB run that also included Kyle Trask (64) and Davis Mills (No. 67).

This isn’t an apples-to-apples comparison for the Broncos. The second wave of QBs is likely to start before the 60s this year and Denver is more in need of a quarterback now than Minnesota was then.

The Broncos would be more likely to take a quarterback like Penix or Nix in the 20s or potentially South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler on Day 2.

The closest match of a trade at present: Denver sends Nos. 12 and 203 to Dallas for Nos. 24, 56 and 87.

Buffalo 2013

The Bills traded Nos. 8 and 71 to St. Louis for Nos. 16, 46, 78 and 222. They then used the No. 16 pick to select … quarterback E.J. Manuel.

That didn’t work so well, though linebacker Kiko Alonso and receiver Marquise Goodwin turned into good players from the next two picks, respectively.

This is a cleaner fit to the Broncos’ situation in that Buffalo simply moved down in the first round and took a quarterback later in the same round, but it’s much different for one key reason: Manuel was still the first quarterback off the board. Next came Geno Smith at No. 39.

This year’s group of quarterbacks will come off the board much faster.

Manuel started 10 games as a rookie, just eight in four seasons after that and went 6-12 with career marks of 58.1% completion, 20 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 11 fumbles and 47 sacks.

At least the Bills took him at No. 16 instead of No. 8.

The Bills finally figured out the Draft-a-QB mystery in 2018 when they moved up from No. 12 (huh) to No. 7 for Josh Allen, two picks after Denver took Bradley Chubb. Buffalo sent Nos. 12, 53 and 56 to Tampa Bay for Nos. 7 and 255 and hit a grand slam.

Baltimore 2008

The biggest success of this lackluster bunch.

Baltimore traded No. 8 to Jacksonville for Nos. 26, 71, 89 and 125. Then it dealt Nos. 26, 89 and 173 to Houston to get back up to No. 18 and take Joe Flacco.

Proof of concept that you can move down the order in the first round and then, if needed, get back up into position to take a guy you like. In 2008, Matt Ryan went No. 3 and then Flacco was the second guy off the board.

Flacco went on to start right away as a rookie, eventually won a Super Bowl in Baltimore and compiled a 103-82 record over 11 seasons there. He’s still playing and was the 2023 Comeback Player of the Year winner in the NFL.

Before the rookie wage scale, however, quarterbacks didn’t get bunched at the top of the draft as much as they do now. That’s part of what makes these less instructive examples.

Chicago 2003

The Bears traded No. 4 for Nos. 13, 22 and 116. They took Rex Grossman at No. 22 after also nabbing defensive lineman Michael Haynes at No. 14 (after a second trade-down).

This year, Carson Palmer went No. 1 overall and Kyle Boller went No. 19 between Chicago’s first pick and its drafting of Grossman, who started 31 games in Chicago and 16 in Washington and threw more interceptions (60) than touchdowns (51) in his career.

Washington in 2001

Washington traded with Oakland to move back from No. 18 to No. 21, then moved back again by trading No. 21 to New England for Nos. 32, 96 and 234. Then it used No. 32 on quarterback Patrick Ramsey. He was the third quarterback off the board after David Carr went No. 1 and Joey Harrington No. 3.

Ramsey started 24 games in Washington (10-14) and threw 34 TDs against 29 INTs on 56% completions. Then he appeared in three games between 2007 and ’08 for the Broncos, throwing 48 passes in 2007.

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A Broncos win-win? Maybe not. History says trading down and finding a QB is difficult (2024)

FAQs

What QB did Broncos pick up? ›

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — After months of offseason speculation and countless mock drafts, the Broncos have made a major addition at the game's most important position. Denver selected Oregon quarterback Bo Nix with the 12th-overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft.

Who will Broncos draft in 2024? ›

Broncos 2024 Draft Class
RoundPickPlayer
RoundPickPlayer
112Bo Nix
376Jonah Elliss
4102Troy Franklin
4 more rows
Apr 27, 2024

Did the Broncos trade up? ›

The Broncos made a splash to start Day 3 of the 2024 NFL Draft, as Denver traded to the top of the fourth round to select Oregon wide receiver Troy Franklin with the 102nd-overall pick. Denver traded the 121st-overall, 136th-overall and 207th-overall picks to Seattle to choose Franklin.

Who has the last pick in the 2024 draft? ›

The New York Jets selected Key, a 6-foot-2, 210 safety out of Alabama, with the final pick of the 2024 NFL draft in the seventh round (257th overall).

Who selected Bo Nix? ›

With the 12th overall pick, the Broncos selected Oregon's Bo Nix, as the sixth quarterback taken in the NFL draft.

Who was Mr. Irrelevant in 2024? ›

The Jets put the finishing touches on the 2024 NFL Draft Saturday night, selecting Alabama defensive back Jaylen Key with the final pick of the 7th Round (No. 257) and granting him the title "Mr. Irrelevant."

Who will host 2025 NFL Draft? ›

Green Bay was selected to be the 2025 NFL Draft's host site in late May. Following Detroit's successful hosting of the 2024 NFL Draft, which saw a record-breaking 700,000-plus fans attending the event, Titletown is looking to kick things off the most appropriate way it can.

Do the Broncos own their 2024 first round pick? ›

The Athletic has live coverage of NFL Draft Rounds 4-7. Follow along with our picks tracker, best available and The Beast. The Denver Broncos have the 12th pick in the NFL Draft when Round 1 begins April 25 in Detroit. The Broncos own eight picks in the seven-round draft.

Who has the most picks in the 2024 NFL Draft? ›

Arizona Cardinals

Did the Broncos have a good draft? ›

Overall Denver Broncos grade: D

The Broncos made some fantastic selections on the second and third days of the draft, but taking Bo Nix with the 12th overall pick is a head-scratcher. Nix wasn't a prospect who was highly in demand and his ceiling appears limited in the NFL.

How many picks do the Denver Broncos have in the 2024 draft? ›

The Broncos have eight scheduled picks in this weekend's event but no selections in the second round. Head coach Sean Payton was acquired from New Orleans in exchange for a first-round pick in 2023 and second-round pick in the 2024 draft.

What did the Broncos trade for Peyton? ›

Sean Payton (Jan. 2023) -- Traded from Saints to Broncos for two draft picks (2023 1st and 2024 2nd). Saints sent 2024 3rd-round pick to Broncos.

When did Peyton Manning trade Broncos? ›

After recovering from the injury, he was released by the Colts and joined the Denver Broncos for whom he played from the 2012 season to the 2015 season. Excluding the year lost to the neck injury, Manning played in 17 NFL seasons. Manning is considered to be one of the greatest NFL quarterbacks of all time.

Who will draft Bucky Irving? ›

After Rachaad White led all NFL running backs in offensive snaps in 2023, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers wanted to get him some more help in the backfield. They did so on Saturday afternoon by selecting Oregon running back Bucky Irving in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft, making him the 125th selection overall.

Did Bo Nix get drafted? ›

Denver Broncos select former Oregon QB Bo Nix with the 12th pick in the NFL draft. The sixth quarterback selected in the 2024 NFL draft was No. 1 in the Denver Broncos' eyes. The Broncos bypassed a bevy of blue-chip defenders to draft former Oregon quarterback Bo Nix with the 12th pick Thursday night.

Do the Broncos have a 2nd round pick? ›

The Broncos have eight scheduled picks in this weekend's event but no selections in the second round. Head coach Sean Payton was acquired from New Orleans in exchange for a first-round pick in 2023 and second-round pick in the 2024 draft.

Who drafted JJ McCarthy? ›

Jonathan James "J.J." McCarthy is a Minnesota Viking. Many believed the Vikings would need to vault up the draft board, but Minnesota held patient before making a slight move. The Vikings nudged up from their 11th overall pick to 10th in a trade with the New York Jets on Thursday.

Where was Zach Wilson drafted? ›

As the No. 2 pick of the 2021 draft by the New York Jets, Wilson's rookie deal included a fifth-year option for the 2025 season.

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