Broncos and ‘The Beast’: NFL Draft guide takeaways on possible Denver targets (2024)

The 2024 NFL Draft may still be two weeks away, but the wait for “The Beast” is over for subscribers at The Athletic. The industry’s most comprehensive draft guide, compiled by expert draft analyst Dane Brugler, is an amazing source of carefully compiled information about hundreds of draft-eligible players. It’s a useful guide for anyone who wants to know more about the prospects.

It is also a great document, in my case, to view through a Broncos lens. Here are some of my top thoughts after an early digesting of “The Beast” as they relate to potential targets or strategies for head coach Sean Payton, general manager George Paton and the Broncos with the April 25 start of the draft quickly approaching:

Does Denver’s top-six list at QB match “The Beast”?

Quarterback Caleb Williams will be drafted No. 1 by the Bears. Any other result would be a massive stunner. There is less certainty about how the quarterbacks will be selected from there — and how the order in which they do will impact the Broncos.

The debate begins with No. 2, where Brugler lists Drake Maye out of North Carolina as the top prospect at the position outside of Williams. Not all evaluators agree. Some view Jayden Daniels of LSU, Brugler’s No. 3 prospect, as most deserving of the second spot. Some even have Michigan’s JJ McCarthy (Brugler’s No. 4) behind Williams. Brugler lists Oregon’s Bo Nix as his No. 5 quarterback (and No. 44 prospect overall) and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. at No. 6 (and No. 52 overall), but some have that order of those two flipped as well.

I do not know what the quarterback board sitting inside the draft room at Broncos headquarters looks like, but my hunch is that Denver would like it if other teams view the board this same way. It starts with Daniels, “a truly unique playmaker,” according to Brugler, and a quarterback whom I believe fits exactly what Payton is seeking at the position. With each spot last year’s Heisman Trophy winner falls, the more “realistic” the Broncos may view the prospect of trading up to acquire him. It would still be a massive investment to get to the Patriots’ spot at No. 3 — it cost the 49ers the No. 12 pick, two future first-rounders and a third-round pick to make the same jump in 2021 — but the Commanders at No. 2 appear unlikely to do a deal at all as they try to answer their quarterback question under the watchful eye of new ownership.

The other takeaway from the top six is McCarthy was given a “first-second (round)” grade by Brugler while Williams, Maye and Daniels all have first-round grades. Nix and Penix, meanwhile, have “second-third” grades. That doesn’t mean that all six quarterbacks won’t go in the first round. It’s very possible given the premium nature of the position. But it’s important information when evaluating the cost the Broncos may pay — even if it’s simply using their own No. 12 pick — to acquire one of these players.

Could Spencer Rattler make sense for the Broncos on Day 2?

Most of the conversation around the Broncos and the quarterback position hinges on whether they will draft one during the opening round, but that is not the only option. If the Broncos don’t take a quarterback at No. 12 or elsewhere in the first round following a trade, it means they have pushed their search for a bonafide franchise answer into next year, but they could continue throwing darts at the position in the meantime while starting Jarrett Stidham in 2024. One of those darts could come in the third round.

Brugler lists the same top six quarterbacks as most evaluators in this draft — though perhaps in a different order — and he also has a clear No. 7: Spencer Rattler of South Carolina. Rattler, the 72nd overall prospect in Brugler’s rankings, doesn’t have prototypical size at the position at just over 6 foot tall, but that’s a frame Payton has worked around in the past, most notably with Drew Brees. Rattler, who spent the first three seasons of an up-and-down college career at Oklahoma, completed 68.9 percent of his passes last season with 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions. His accuracy, Brugler wrote, is born of “repeatable mechanics” and “an athletic release.”

Just how high Rattler could climb in the draft, Brugler noted, would come down to how well he tested in interviews — whether he could convey an ability to make quick decisions that will be required of him as he seeks to become more “urgent” in his movements at the NFL level. Rattler said on the “Up and Adams” show earlier this month that Denver’s information-packed meetings were the ones he felt compelled to study for the most.

“With their QB quiz and what they do for the install, it was a pretty cool thing,” Rattler told the show’s host, Kay Adams, “but definitely had to study up on that. But did a great job with that.”

The Broncos hold the No. 76 pick, their first scheduled selection after No. 12.

One more reason to like the Brock Bowers fit

It was hard to miss Payton’s excitement last offseason when he discussed second-year tight end Greg Dulcich’s potential role in the Broncos offense. Payton called Dulcich, a 2022 third-round pick out of UCLA, a potential “Joker” player who could be moved around to multiple spots along the line of scrimmage to create mismatches against various defensive schemes and game plans.

The fit didn’t materialize because Dulcich missed all but two games with hamstring injuries, and he only played one half in each of those contests. The need for a dangerous weapon at tight end remains, making Bowers an intriguing first-round possibility for the Broncos. And this passage from Brugler’s guide leaves a lot of room to imagine just how much of a “Joker” the three-time All-American at Georgia could be in Payton’s offense:

“Bowers was the featured weapon in offensive coordinator Mike Bobo’s scheme, lining up across the formation, with his career snaps spread between the slot (52.2 percent), inline (36.6) and wide (9.5). … With both short-area burst and long speed, Bowers makes quick, dynamic cuts to create spacing as a route runner and hits another gear with the ball in his hands to be a home-run threat. He is a natural hands-catcher outside his frame and snatches without breaking stride.”

Will Broncos buck likely offensive trend in the first round?

One thing quickly jumped out when I analyzed Brugler’s top-100 list: This will be an offense-heavy first round. That sentiment has been building since the start of the pre-draft process, but it crystallizes when you look at Brugler’s list and see the first defensive player, Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner, appear at No. 14. That is the lowest Brugler has ranked the top defensive player in a class since he began publishing “The Beast” in The Athletic in 2019. Coincidentally, the previous low mark for the top defensive player was Pat Surtain II at No. 10 in 2021. He was drafted ninth by the Broncos that year.

Quarterbacks and wide receivers figure to populate the spots leading up to the Broncos’ selection at No. 12. There also could be a run of offensive tackles in that same stretch, beginning with Notre Dame’s Joe Alt. It’s even possible the Broncos could end up with their choice of the draft’s top defensive players by the time their selection arrives. The list of needs for the Broncos is larger on the offensive side of the ball, weighed further in that direction by their hole at quarterback. Still, they could use an impact presence at multiple positions. That includes edge rusher, where Turner, Florida State’s Jared Verse and UCLA’s Laiatu Latu could also be targets, and at cornerback, where Denver could have its choice among Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell or Alabama’s Terrion Arnold to pair with Surtain.

Payton may be an offensive play-caller, but the top of his drafts have typically slanted toward the defensive side. The Saints had 16 first-round picks from 2006 to 2021 and used nine on defensive players. Again, the top big picture for Denver resides at quarterback. But if the Broncos decide to address that spot with an avenue other than their top pick, they could have a chance to add one of the top defensive players in this class.

Notes on some local draft options

The local player with the highest draft grade from Brugler is Colorado State edge rusher Mohamed Kamara, who lands a “fifth-sixth” mark after a 2023 season with the Rams in which he recorded 13 sacks and was named a second-team All-American. The Broncos have visited with Kamara multiple times during the draft process and could view him as another developmental pass rusher with significant upside, similar to Jonathan Cooper, the team’s seventh-round pick in 2021 who just turned in a career season in 2023 with 8 1/2 sacks.

“That would be cool,” Kamara said at the combine of potentially being drafted by the Broncos. “I’ve been to Mile High my freshman year. That was an experience. That was the Rocky Mountain Showdown (against Colorado). That would be cool to continue that relationship with Colorado because that’s my second home now.”

Brugler’s overall analysis of Kamara (6-foot-1, 248 pounds) further draws a Cooper comparison: “Kamara doesn’t have the ideal size or length, but his physicality and energetic athleticism shouldn’t be discounted for the right role. He projects as a high-effort rotational edge rusher.”

Another player who could be an option for the Broncos later in the draft is Kamara’s CSU teammate, Dallin Holker. The 6-foot-3, 243-pound tight end was also a second-team All-American after leading all FBS tight ends in catches (64) and receiving yards (767). He received a sixth-round grade from Brugler.

“He’s sneaky quick,” Kamara said when asked to provide a scouting report on Holker at the combine. “You’d think he’s slow, but he’s sneaky. He catches the ball and he’ll turn up and make a DB miss. He’s great at that. He can make somebody miss. He put on some weight, some good weight. He’s going to hit you, now. So, I’m excited for him. He pushed away his doubts. He’s in the same situation I am in now: we’re not super big, we’re not super fast, whatever the case may be. But when it comes to the field we stand out.”

Other players with local connections who received draftable grades include Wyoming offensive tackle Frank Crum (sixth round), Colorado State wide receiver Xavier Weaver (sixth-seventh), Colorado State cornerback Chigozie Anusiem (seventh), Air Force safety Trey Taylor (seventh-priority free agent) and Wyoming linebacker Easton Gibbs (seventh-priority free agent).

(Top photo of Spencer Rattler: Jeff Blake / USA Today)